The Sexy Geologist

Yesterday was the 10th anniversary of the Izmit earthquake. One of the worst disasters in Turkish history, it not only killed 17,000 but also spurred an industry of sob stories and doomsday prophecies.

Earthquakes have always been a part of Anatolia’s history: as far back as 4th century BC entire cities were being levelled, like the Ionian (fancy word for Greek) city of Priene. So common were earthquakes, the Greeks decided to save time by just erecting ruins instead, many of which are still standing today.

In any given month Turkey suffers hundreds of earthquakes, most too sensitive to detect without powerful equipment or powerful drugs, but the Izmit earthquake was particularly memorable with ample suffering to cover. By the tenth anniversary the media had plenty of material for stories like “10th year of the great pain,” “Accounts of those who witnessed ‘that pain’,” “Lives ruined by the earthquake,” (links Turkish).

The other lesson the Izmit earthquake taught, besides that people don’t like having their houses fall on them, was that every segment along the north Anatolian fault breaks over the course of several centuries (see below), and the only part that hadn’t broken was under Istanbul; Istanbul was due for a major earthquake at any moment.

Experts put the likelihood of a major Istanbul earthquake (link Turkish) in the next thirty years at 62 percent, and in the next fifty years at 90 percent. And so an industry of geologist-prophets emerged warning of the earthquakes imminence and how bad Istanbul was going to suffer: between 20 thousand and 90 thousand fatalities and at best 50,000 destroyed buildings (links Turkish).

Seismologist Prof. Ahmet Mete Işıkara (right), head of the main earthquake research institute in 1999 (and so comforting he was declared the sexiest man in Turkey [link Turkish]), has predicted Istanbul was at risk of an earthquake in 2000, 2004 and 2005, 2006. Currently, his estimate is either before 2010 or, if not, between 2010 and 2014, and also expresses “concern that nothing has happened since 2003” (links Turkish). Sure the people listen, but no one really does anything about it.

The situation is quite similar to California’s anticipation of the “The Big One,” an earthquake that is supposed to devastate major population centers and is talked about frequently, but still has yet to come. Being California they’ve even made a movie, The Big One: the Great Los Angeles Earthquake, where a seismologist played by Joanna Kerns (left) tries to warn city leaders of an imminent earthquake and is promptly ignored, probably because noone declared her “the sexiest man in Turkey.”

So millions will continue to live in Istanbul and Los Angeles, fully expecting the eartquake, meanwhile seismologists will keep on monitoring the earth with the hope of attaining the highest honor a scientist can acheive, the right to tell the people “I told you so.”